Category: Featured

Dear Trader…

Markets traded volatile on Thursday but managed to maintain the positive tone, continuing its prevailing trend. After a flat start, the Nifty future index oscillated within a limited range in the first half however volatility in heavyweights in the latter half triggered sharp swings. Eventually, it closed near the day’s high at 25,510.90, up 0.34%.

The market’s upward momentum was underpinned primarily by the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut of 25 basis points, which boosted risk sentiment globally. Besides, the sentiment stayed constructive, supported by sustained domestic flows and rotational buying in key sectors.

On the index front, we are now on the verge of testing the target zone 25,606 zone in Nifty, which could prompt some profit taking or consolidation in the index ahead. However, the favorable sentiment across the key sectors would keep the tone positive. We thus recommend focusing more on stock-specific opportunities now, preferring stocks where risk to reward is favorable.

Nifty futures opened at 25480 points against the previous close of 25423 and opened at a low of 25435 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 89 points and a rise of around 87 points and 25510 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.38% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.29%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only Media, PSU Bank, Realty and Oil & gas stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,09,180, fell from a high of Rs.1,09,802 points to a low of Rs.1,08,690 with a decline of 182 points, a trend of around Rs.1,09,640 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,25,999, fell from a high of Rs.1,27,532 points to a low of Rs.1,25,430 with a rise of 387 points, a trend of around Rs.1,27,371.

Meanwhile, Eternal, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, HCL Tech, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, Axis Bank and Bajaj FinServ settled high amid the Sensex stocks. Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Trent, Ultratech Cement, and Asian Paints ended the session in negative territory.

The majority of sectoral indices remained in green amid value buying. Nifty Fin Services jumped 135 points or 0.51 per cent, Nifty Bank rose 234 points or 0.42 per cent, Nifty Auto moved up 34 points or 0.13 per cent, Nifty FMCG jumped up 201 points or 0.36 per cent, and Nifty IT surged 303 points or 0.83 per cent.

Rupee closed weaker by 0.26 at 88.09 despite the dollar index staying soft post-Fed policy, where a rate cut was announced but forward guidance remained mixed as the roadmap for further cuts was unclear and data-dependent on jobs. The rupee failed to gain as FII sentiment remained cautious, while ongoing India-US trade talks will be the next key trigger.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

The US Federal Reserve has announced its first interest rate cut of 2025, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to a range of 4.0–4.25%, down from 4.25–4.50%. This move comes amid repeated pressure and criticism from President Donald Trump, who has been calling for rate cuts since taking office.

Experts believe the decision will have implications for Asian markets, including India. Following the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting, Chair Jerome Powell stated that economic activity in the US is slowing, job growth is under pressure, and inflation remains elevated — prompting the rate reduction. Powell also signaled that further cuts may follow later this year to counter tariff-driven inflationary pressures.

India’s exports to the US are under heavy pressure due to steep tariff hikes. In August 2025, exports fell 16.3% year-on-year to $6.7 billion, marking the third consecutive monthly decline, following drops of 3.6% in July and 5.7% in June.

The Global Trade & Research Initiative reports that apparel and gems & jewellery have been hit hardest by the 50% tariffs, though about 35% of exports, including pharma and smartphones, remain exempt. The US accounted for $86 billion of India’s exports last fiscal year.

Tariffs were raised from 10% to 25% on August 7, and then further doubled to 50% on August 27. Industry sources warn that September could be the toughest month yet as the full effect of the tariff hike takes hold. Overall, India’s exports to the US could fall by $30–35 billion in FY26, given that the US accounts for around 20% of the country’s total exports.

Volatility in Indian equities has triggered a sharp decline in direct equity investments by retail investors. So far in 2025, net inflows from this segment have dropped to just ₹13,273 crore, compared to ₹1.1 lakh crore during January–September 2024 — a nearly 90% fall.

March 2025 alone saw net outflows of ₹14,325 crore, the largest monthly withdrawal since 2016. Retail investors have been net sellers in five of the past nine months, despite brief phases of buying in July and August.

In contrast, mutual funds, insurance companies, and pension funds have consistently provided strong inflows, supported by SIP contributions, insurance premiums, and retirement savings. Analysts note that as direct investing has become more challenging, small investors are shifting from “buy and hold” strategies toward formal investment vehicles. Heavy losses in thematic stocks during last year’s rally have also reshaped investor preferences.

Despite sustained foreign investor selling, the Indian stock market has remained stable thanks to robust inflows from domestic institutional investors (DIIs). According to Jefferies’ Global Head of Equity Strategy, Christopher Wood, without this steady support, Indian equities could have seen a 20–30% correction.

DIIs have been net buyers for 25 consecutive months through August 2025. In just the first five months of FY26, mutual funds recorded record inflows of $37.6 billion. By contrast, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold a net $1.5 billion year-to-date, with $6 billion of outflows in July and August alone.

While FIIs are currently shifting focus toward markets like Korea and Taiwan, Wood expects India to regain traction once trade tensions with the US ease. Even if tariffs remain, he believes FIIs will return as net buyers by year-end. With high nominal GDP growth, recent tax and GST reforms, and income tax relief, India’s corporate earnings outlook remains strong. Mutual fund inflows, backed by domestic investor confidence, continue to serve as the backbone of the market.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that global oil and gas reserves are depleting rapidly. Based on a study of over 15,000 oil and gas fields worldwide, the agency cautioned that without fresh investments, production will decline steadily in the years ahead.

Currently, nearly 90% of annual investments in the sector are directed toward maintaining existing output rather than expanding new capacity. Without exploration, global oil production could fall by 5.5 million barrels per day annually, while natural gas output could shrink by 270 billion cubic meters.

For India, which imports 85% of its crude oil and 45% of its gas needs, this is a major concern. Declining reserves could push up energy costs and threaten supply security. The sharpest depletion is expected in shale and deepwater sources, heightening risks.

The IEA has advised India to diversify its supply sources, boost domestic exploration, and accelerate investments in alternative energy such as green hydrogen and biofuels. Without timely action, the agency warns, supply shortages could emerge by the 2030s, triggering price shocks and jeopardizing global energy security.

Dear Trader…

The market remained steady as investors remained cautiously optimistic following prolonged discussions between India and the United States on tariff-related issues.

Sensex ended the session at 82,693.71, up 313 points or 0.38 per cent. The 30-share index opened with a decent gap-up at 82,506.40 against the last session’s closing of 82,380.69. The index extended the early gain a bit to hit an intraday high at 82,741.95 following buying in heavyweights.

Nifty futures opened at 25365 points against the previous close of 25331 and opened at a low of 25362 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 83 points and a rise of around 92 points and 25423 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.08% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.68%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only Metal, Consumer Durables, FMCG, Pharma and Healthcare stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,09,956, fell from a high of Rs.1,09,956 points to a low of Rs.1,09,180 with a decline of 631 points, a trend of around Rs.1,09,525 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,27,486, fell from a high of Rs.1,27,660 points to a low of Rs.1,25,300 with a decline of 2362 points, a trend of around Rs.1,26,458.

Meanwhile, despite the range-bound move, underlying sentiment remains supported by optimism around policy reforms and robust domestic flows. However, persistent FII selling and caution ahead of the U.S. Fed policy outcome capped the momentum, he added.

SBI, BEL, Kotak Bank, Maruti, Trent, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Mahindra and Mahindra, Tata Motors, Infosys, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, and L&T were the top gainers from the Sensex basket. While Bajaj FinServ, Titan, ITC, Tata Steel, and Hindustan Unilever settled lower.

The majority of sectoral indices escalated amid a mixed approach. Nifty Fin Services jumped 68 points or 0.26 per cent, Nifty Bank moved 345 points or 0.63 per cent, Nifty Auto surged 148 points or 0.55 per cent, and Nifty IT ended the session 235 points or 0.65 per cent higher. Nifty FMCG fell. Broader indices remained buoyed due to value buying in small-cap stocks.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

Dear Trader…

The benchmark indices extended their recovery with a strong rally today. The Nifty futures closed 166 points higher, while the Sensex surged 595 points, reflecting broad-based buying interest across sectors. Among the key sectoral indices, autos led the charge with a robust gain of over 1.5 percent, followed closely by consumer durables.

The positive momentum was largely driven by supportive global cues, with investors betting on a likely 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming US Fed policy meeting, along with renewed optimism over the resumption of India–US trade negotiations. On the domestic front, expectations of festive season demand and the rollout of new GST rates provided an additional boost, particularly to auto and consumer-focused stocks.

Looking ahead, market direction will be guided by progress in trade discussions and cues from the US Fed. At the same time, India’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals are expected to underpin upward earnings revisions, supporting current valuations and helping mitigate downside risks.

Nifty futures opened at 25178 points against the previous close of 25164 and opened at a low of 25152 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 202 points and a rise of around 166 points and 25331 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.54% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.95%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only FMCG stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,10,277, fell from a high of Rs.1,10,666 points to a low of Rs.1,10,070 with a rise of 211 points, a trend of around Rs.1,10,390 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,29,336, fell from a high of Rs.1,30,285 points to a low of Rs.1,29,214 with a rise of 605 points, a trend of around Rs.1,30,034.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10330.18 crore against gross selling of Rs 10666.63 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 336.45 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1421.51 crore with gross sales of Rs 1003.73 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 417.78 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net sellers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 432.08 crore, they stood at net buyers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 49.27 crore, while net buyers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 800.59 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 51.51 crore against gross selling of Rs 45.61 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 5.90 crore in hybrid segment.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

The recent GST overhaul, which slashes vehicle prices by 3–9% across categories, is expected to accelerate the automobile sector’s growth to 4–14% CAGR through FY28, according to HSBC Global Research.

Lower prices will improve affordability, attract first-time buyers, and boost replacement demand, leading to a 200–300 bps growth upgrade across segments. Passenger vehicles could see price cuts of ₹40,000–1.5 lakh, with compact UVs and diesel SUVs benefiting the most. Tata Motors is set to gain the most, followed by Maruti, Hyundai, and M&M.

Two-wheeler demand is likely to pick up on festive and rural demand tailwinds, though electric 2W growth may stagnate. Commercial vehicles are also expected to benefit, with MHCV CAGR growth revised up by 150 bps. Since the GST cut, auto stocks have surged 6–17% versus a 2% rise in Nifty 50, though valuations remain 15% above the 10-year average, suggesting earnings growth will be the key driver ahead.

The Indian rupee is expected to open firmer on Tuesday, supported by a softer dollar in the run-up to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The 1-month non-deliverable forward suggested an opening range of 88.12–88.14 per dollar, compared with Monday’s close of 88.21.

The currency has rebounded after touching a record low of 88.4550 on Friday, aided by positive moves in Asian currencies and steady risk appetite. Traders noted the pullback was modest, likely influenced by lighter positions and two-way flows. Analysts said the rupee could gain further if the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, potentially squeezing dollar longs. Broader Asian equities and currencies also advanced, while the dollar index slipped ahead of the Fed’s expected 25-bps rate cut, with markets pricing in additional reductions later this year.