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India’s capital markets regulator SEBI has eased minimum public shareholding (MPS) requirements for companies launching large IPOs. Firms with a market capitalization above ₹5 lakh crore at listing will now be required to offload only 2.5% of shares to the public, compared to the earlier threshold of 5%.

Additionally, a single-window clearance system has been introduced for sovereign-backed and foreign retail funds to facilitate smoother entry into domestic markets. For mid-sized issuers with market caps between ₹50,000 crore and ₹1 lakh crore, the minimum public offer (MPO) has been fixed at ₹6,250 crore, with a 2.75% public float. The largest issuers must bring an MPO of ₹15,000 crore and at least 2.5% public shareholding.

If the public float is below 15% at listing, companies will be required to raise it to 15% within five years and 25% within ten years. Retail investor reservations in IPOs will remain at 35%, while mutual funds will now benefit from undersubscription spillover provisions.

Dear Trader…

Markets extended their winning streak on Friday, gaining nearly half a percent, in line with favorable global and domestic cues. After a positive start, the benchmark advanced during the first half and later consolidated in a narrow range until the close. Sector participation was broad-based, with metals, financials, and autos leading the gains, while FMCG lagged behind.

The up move was supported by a mix of triggers. Corporate developments, such as Infosys’ 18,000 crore mega buyback, boosted sentiment in IT blue chips. Strong inflows from domestic institutional investors offset continued selling by foreign portfolio investors, while positive cues from global markets further strengthened momentum.

Traders should continue to focus on the sustained strength in metals, autos, and pharma, while remaining selective in other sectors and themes such as defense and railways.

Nifty futures opened at 25126 points against the previous close of 25104 and opened at a low of 25126 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 96 points and a rise of around 100 points and 25205 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.32% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.64%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only FMCG, Media and PSU Bank stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,09,352, fell from a high of Rs.1,09,656 points to a low of Rs.1,09,122 with a rise of 336 points, a trend of around Rs.1,09,317 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,27,599, fell from a high of Rs.1,29,392 points to a low of Rs.1,27,599 with a rise of 1307 points, a trend of around Rs.1,28,245.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10398.44 crore against gross selling of Rs 13812.03 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 3413.59 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 821.61 crore with gross sales of Rs 495.24 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 326.37 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net buyers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 36.71 crore, they stood at net sellers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 48.47 crore, while net buyers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 338.13 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 31.20 crore against gross selling of Rs 24.52 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 6.68 crore in hybrid segment.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

Corporate earnings for India’s benchmark Nifty 50 companies slowed significantly in Q1 FY2025-26. The index’s earnings per share (EPS) grew just 7.4% year-on-year, marking the weakest pace in almost four years. In comparison, EPS growth stood at 20.4% in the same quarter last year, and had averaged around 18% in the previous two years.

The current slowdown is even weaker than in 2023, when EPS growth averaged 8.8%. Data shows the index’s trailing 12-month EPS at ₹1,135.4, compared to ₹1,057.1 at the end of September 2024.

Long-term growth comparisons also indicate underperformance. The 20-year average EPS growth stands at 12.6%, while the 10-year average is 10.8%. Despite this weakness, valuations remain elevated. Currently, the Nifty 50 trades at about 21.8 times trailing earnings, lower than 23x in 2024 and 22.3x in 2023, but still above the lows seen in February 2025.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that despite the slowdown, investors are factoring in future earnings recovery. For FY26, they expect Nifty 50 EPS to grow around 9%, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and government policy measures.

However, challenges persist. With sluggish earnings growth and higher valuations, the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio has climbed to a 52-month high of nearly 3, compared to just 1.19 in September 2024. Analysts warn this reflects a growing disconnect between valuations and fundamentals.

Concerns also remain over a potential cut in government capital expenditure and weaker housing sector investments, which could put pressure on domestic demand. Additionally, subdued global consumer sentiment and corporate outlooks may limit export opportunities.

The Indian rupee weakened to a historic low of 88.46 against the U.S. dollar, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures. The currency opened at 88.12 in the forex market and quickly depreciated, touching an intraday low of 88.46, before closing at 88.42. With the dollar gaining 31 paise, the rupee slipped 0.35%.

Despite a decline in global crude oil prices and bullish momentum in Mumbai’s equity markets, the rupee remained under pressure. Analysts attribute the weakness largely to the U.S. administration’s stringent tariff measures, which have weighed on Asian currencies broadly, though the rupee has fallen the most.

Rising dollar demand from importers and hedging activity have further intensified pressure. Although state-run banks sold dollars at the Reserve Bank of India’s guidance, the intervention failed to provide much support. Exporters, however, have benefitted slightly from the stronger dollar.

On the global front, fresh data showed slower job growth in the U.S. alongside lower-than-expected inflation, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in its upcoming September 16–17 meeting. Meanwhile, Japan recorded higher inflation, and the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged.

In forex market moves, the rupee traded at 119.41 against the British pound, 103.35 against the euro, while the yen weakened 0.10% and the Chinese yuan strengthened 0.34%.

Dear Trader…

Markets traded in a subdued manner on Thursday and ended marginally higher, taking a breather after the recent surge. After a positive start, the Nifty moved in a narrow range throughout the session and finally settled at 25,104.5 level. Sectoral performance was mixed, with energy and pharma emerging as top gainers, while IT and auto witnessed profit booking. Meanwhile, the broader indices remained largely flat, underperforming the large-cap space.

It appears that markets have absorbed the initial reaction to favorable developments such as GST reforms and optimism around US–India trade talks, and may now witness a brief pause. However, rotational buying across key sectors and early signs of a reversal in themes like defense and railways are likely to keep the undertone positive. Amid this backdrop, we continue to advocate a “buy on dips” strategy in the index and suggest focusing on accumulating quality names across sectors and themes that are moving in line with the benchmark.

Nifty futures opened at 25049 points against the previous close of 25072 and opened at a low of 25048 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 71 points and a rise of around 32 points and 25104 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.08% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.01%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only IT, Auto and Consumer Durables stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,08,705, fell from a high of Rs.1,08,990 points to a low of Rs.1,08,563 with a decline of 332 points, a trend of around Rs.1,08,654 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,25,081, fell from a high of Rs.1,25,458 points to a low of Rs.1,24,598 with a rise of 20 points, a trend of around Rs.1,25,200.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 17140.77 crore against gross selling of Rs 12646.63 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 4494.14 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2698.08 crore with gross sales of Rs 1955.49 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 742.59 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net sellers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 361.32 crore, they stood at net sellers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 83.05 crore, while net buyers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 1186.96 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 31.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 21.76 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 9.43 crore in hybrid segment.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

Rating agency Fitch has revised upwards its growth forecast for India’s economy in FY2025-26, raising it from 6.50% to 6.90%. Strong domestic demand is seen as the primary driver, supported by rising household incomes and higher consumer spending.

For the subsequent years, however, Fitch maintains a cautious outlook, projecting growth at 6.30% in FY2026-27 and 6.20% in FY2027-28.

Globally, Fitch expects world GDP growth to slow to 2.40% in 2025, down from 2.90% in the previous year. Apart from India, the agency also upgraded China’s growth forecast from 4.20% to 4.70%. Growth in the Eurozone is projected to rise from 0.80% to 1.10%, while the U.S. is expected to grow from 1.50% to 1.60%.

On India, Fitch noted that while U.S. tariffs are likely to be reduced in phases, uncertainty in trade relations could weigh on investment. Nevertheless, GST reforms, a favorable monsoon, rising consumption, and easing food inflation are expected to support growth. Fitch also projected that the Reserve Bank of India may cut the repo rate by 25 basis points before the end of the year.

If a trade agreement is concluded between India and the European Union (EU), nearly 85% of India’s exports currently bound for the United States could potentially be redirected to Europe. A recent study highlights strong demand for Indian goods in Europe, suggesting the bloc could serve as a buffer market against U.S. tariff shocks.

In 2024, India’s exports to the EU stood at $77.50 billion, compared to $79.40 billion to the U.S. The study estimates that if a trade deal materializes, about $67.20 billion worth of exports to the U.S. could be shifted to Europe, though the extent of the increase will depend on the terms of the agreement.

Diamonds represent a significant opportunity for India. Last year, the U.S. imported $4.82 billion worth of diamonds from India, while Europe imported $1.70 billion of diamonds from India out of its total $7.30 billion imports. This points to considerable headroom for Indian diamond exports in the European market.

Beyond diamonds, smartphone exports could also benefit. Europe currently imports billions of dollars worth of smartphones from other countries, while imports from India remain relatively small.

The EU deal is progressing swiftly, whereas the agreement with the UK is still awaiting parliamentary approval. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been pressing Europe to impose tariffs on Indian goods. At the same time, early signs of a trade agreement between India and the U.S. are also emerging. President Donald Trump has recently softened his stance towards India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has responded positively to his remarks.

Equity mutual fund inflows saw a notable decline in August 2025. According to data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), net inflows into equity funds dropped 21% to ₹33,430 crore, compared to ₹42,702.35 crore in July. Despite the slowdown, equity funds have maintained positive inflows for the 54th consecutive month.

The mutual fund industry’s assets under management (AUM) slipped marginally to ₹75.18 lakh crore in August, from ₹75.35 lakh crore in July. Investor participation, however, remained strong. The number of mutual fund folios rose from 24.57 crore in July to 24.89 crore in August, up from 24.13 crore at the end of June. During the month, 23 new fund schemes were launched, mobilizing ₹2,859 crore, compared to 30 new schemes raising ₹30,416 crore in July.

By category, flexi-cap funds attracted the highest inflows at ₹7,679 crore, followed by mid-cap funds at ₹5,331 crore and small-cap funds at ₹4,993 crore. Large-cap funds also saw renewed interest with ₹2,835 crore of inflows. Sectoral and thematic funds, however, witnessed a sharp drop in inflows, falling to ₹3,893 crore in August from ₹9,426 crore in July.

On the debt side, outflows of ₹7,980 crore were recorded in August, a sharp reversal from the strong ₹1.06 lakh crore inflows in July. The decline was largely driven by liquid funds, where short-term withdrawals by corporates and institutional investors led to redemptions of ₹13,350 crore. Corporate bond funds saw outflows of ₹825 crore, while gilt funds lost ₹928 crore.

Hybrid funds also reported lower inflows of ₹15,293 crore in August, compared to ₹20,879 crore in July. In contrast, investor interest in gold ETFs surged, with inflows rising to ₹2,190 crore from ₹1,256 crore a month earlier.

Dear Trader…

The domestic market maintained its upward trajectory today, with Nifty futures advancing by 122 points and the Sensex climbing 324 points. Sectoral performance was mixed – IT, Defense, and PSU Banks surged more than 2 percent each, whereas the Auto index was the biggest drag, slipping over 1.3 percent.

From a technical standpoint, the indices opened higher with a gap-up start but once again encountered profit-booking at elevated levels. Even so, the near-term view stays optimistic as the Nifty managed to end the session above its 50-day Simple Moving Average, a development considered encouraging by traders.

Improved sentiment was also underpinned by progress in trade discussions between India and the US, which has raised hopes of a favourable outcome on tariff-related matters. Market resilience is further supported by expectations of stronger earnings in the second half of FY26, aided by GST rationalisation and the impact of monetary easing.

The IT index, in particular, extended its strength on the back of optimism over a possible Fed rate cut next week and a rebound in global technology spending.

NIFTY FUTURE opened at 25021 points against the previous close of 24950 and opened at a low of 25001 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 123 points and a rise of around 122 points and 25072 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.93% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.73%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only Auto, Media and Consumer Durables stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,08,744, fell from a high of Rs.1,09,356 points to a low of Rs.1,08,668 with a rise of 68 points, a trend of around Rs.1,09,101 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,24,926, fell from a high of Rs.1,25,495 points to a low of Rs.1,24,799 with a rise of 593 points, a trend of around Rs.1,25,054.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 22644.22 crore against gross selling of Rs 22073.43 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 570.79 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2505.63 crore with gross sales of Rs 2489.77 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 15.86 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net sellers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 418.87 crore, they stood at net sellers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 95.02 crore, while net buyers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 529.75 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 41.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 86.58 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 45.17 crore in hybrid segment.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

India’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years, owing to the weak performance of domestic equities.

At the end of August, India’s share was 16.21%—the lowest since November 2023. In July 2024, it was as high as 20%, but has since declined significantly. At that point, India was only 4.5% behind China, but now it has slipped to third place after Taiwan.

The MSCI EM Investable Markets Index shows a similar trend. A year ago, India’s weight stood at 22.3%, which fell to 17.47% by August 2025. While the MSCI EM Index has risen 16% over the past 12 months, India’s Nifty 50 has slipped 0.2%, weakening its position.

Analysts note that India’s representation in the index has actually grown—from 146 companies in July 2024 to 160 now. However, China’s market capitalization expanded sharply due to a strong rally, while India’s leading stocks underperformed. Experts still expect India’s representation to rise further to about 170 companies over the next year.

Yet, unless China sees a significant decline, India may take longer to regain a 20% share in the MSCI EM Index. This matters because the index is tracked by global funds managing over $700 billion in assets.

Morgan Stanley has observed that India’s weight in global EM funds is currently at its lowest level. Weaker earnings, slower growth, and U.S. tariffs have led to India’s downgrade relative to long-term bonds, other EM markets, and gold.