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The imposition of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum is expected to severely impact India’s engineering exports, with losses estimated at $7.5–8 billion. Nearly all products in this sector are now subject to 50% tariffs, prompting exporters to seek urgent government support. According to the Engineering Export Promotion Council, business has halved and new orders have nearly stopped due to these tariffs.

In FY2024–25, India’s total engineering exports to the U.S. were worth $20 billion. Of this, $5 billion came from steel, aluminum, and related products, $2.6 billion from the auto sector, and the remaining $12.5 billion from other engineering products. Exports of steel and aluminum are expected to fall by about 20%, while auto exports may decline by $0.5 billion.

Ahead of the July tariff deadline, exporters shipped large volumes, boosting April–July exports. During this period, India’s total engineering exports rose 6.08% to $39.34 billion, with U.S.-bound exports growing 12.6% to $6.95 billion. In July alone, exports jumped 19.2% to $1.81 billion. Industrial machinery was the largest export to the U.S., increasing 17% to $1.57 billion during April–July.

In July, India’s textile and apparel exports to the U.S. rose 9.1% compared to the same period a year earlier, according to data from the U.S. International Trade Administration. In June as well, India’s exports recorded a 12% month-on-month increase. Experts say this growth was possible because Indian exporters shipped large volumes before the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump came into effect.

Despite the July growth, India’s overall exports still remain lower than its major competitors, according to the analysis of the Indian textile industry association. Exporters from Tiruppur said major U.S. brands agreed to continue placing orders with Indian exporters on the condition of a 5–8% discount.

Compared to July last year, U.S. imports of textiles from Vietnam and Bangladesh rose 14.2%, while apparel imports increased 5.2%. Although the growth slowed slightly versus June, both countries have further strengthened their position in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, China witnessed a sharp 35% decline in its textile and apparel exports to the U.S.

Between January and July 2025, India’s total textile and apparel exports to the U.S. rose 11.4% to $6.22 billion, up from $5.58 billion in the same period of 2024. Currently, India’s textile and apparel sector contributes around 2% to the country’s GDP and is among the largest employment generators. The U.S. remains India’s largest export market, accounting for nearly 28% of total textile and apparel shipments.

Dear Trader…

Indian equity markets ended higher on Tuesday, driven by strength in IT, pharma, and FMCG stocks, though auto and realty sectors saw some selling pressure. Market sentiment improved after Infosys announced a share buyback proposal, sparking strong buying in IT names and lifting overall mood. The Sensex rose 314 points to close at 81,101, while the Nifty future gained 57 points to end at 24,950.

On Tuesday, supported by strength in IT and pharma stocks. The index formed a bullish candle on the daily chart, reflecting positive sentiment after Infosys’s buyback news. Strong buying interest was visible at lower levels. Volatility remained contained, with India VIX steady around 10.8, reflecting a stable trading environment despite intraday swings.

Nifty futures opened at 24931 points against the previous close of 24892 and opened at a low of 24910 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 59 points and a rise of around 57 points and 24950 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.18% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.34%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only Realty, Oil and Gas, PSU Bank, Consumer Durables and Auto stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,08,947, fell from a high of Rs.1,09,500 points to a low of Rs.1,08,600 with a rise of 658 points, a trend of around Rs.1,09,176 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,25,463, fell from a high of Rs.1,26,277 points to a low of Rs.1,25,131 with a decline of 237 points, a trend of around Rs.1,25,334.

Meanwhile, Infosys emerged as the top gainer among the Sensex 30 shares, jumping 5 per cent to Rs 1,504 and alone adding 217 points to the index. Other major gainers included Adani Ports, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, TCS and Bajaj Finserv, which advanced between 1 and 3 per cent. On the other hand, stocks like Trent, Eternal and UltraTech Cement slipped by 1 to 2 per cent.

On the currency front, the rupee gained 0.18 per cent to close at 88.14 against the US dollar. Market experts said the currency benefitted from a weaker dollar amid expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut. The rupee is likely to stay within a range of 87.75-88.50 in the near term, with any move below 87.75 opening room for further gains.

Additionally, gold traded positive with gains of 0.50 per cent at $3654 on COMEX and 0.69 per cent at Rs 1,09,250 on MCX as prices factored in the highly expected Fed rate cut after weak jobs and payroll data. The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

In August 2025, the auto retail sector recorded modest growth of only 2.84%, despite festivals like Onam and Ganesh Chaturthi during the month. According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), many customers delayed purchases until September in anticipation of the GST rate cut. Since the cut came into effect from September 22, a strong sales rebound is expected during Dussehra and Diwali.

The tractor segment saw a sharp surge of 301.4%, while most other segments registered only single-digit growth. Two-wheeler sales rose by 2.18%, passenger vehicle sales by 0.93%, and commercial vehicle sales by 8.55%. In contrast, three-wheeler sales declined by 2.26% and construction equipment sales fell by 26.45%.

Overall auto retail sales in August 2025 increased to 19.60 lakh units, up from 19.10 lakh units a year earlier. Compared to July, sales improved by 1.34%. States like Kerala and Maharashtra recorded strong sales due to festivals, but in other regions, heavy rains and floods weakened rural demand. Dealers expect vehicle sales to rise significantly during the upcoming Dussehra and Diwali festivals.

Apart from the recent ₹25,000 crore capital raised by State Bank of India (SBI), the pace of fundraising through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) this year has slowed significantly compared to last year.

By August 2025, a total of 27 companies had raised ₹57,254 crore via QIPs, compared to 58 companies raising ₹64,924 crore in the same period last year. Excluding SBI’s large fundraising, the overall capital raised this year would be less than half of last year’s levels.

Market experts attribute this slowdown to U.S. tariff issues and other global factors that have created volatility throughout the year. However, the recent GST reduction and stronger consumption during the festive season are expected to reflect positively in July–September quarterly results, which could encourage more companies to tap the QIP route.

Analysts believe that after the festive season, more QIP announcements are likely. Notably, QIP is a method where companies can issue new shares to select investors at a discount to market price. It remains a preferred choice for follow-on fundraising, as it is quicker and more cost-efficient.

This year, India’s crude oil demand is expected to grow faster than China’s. According to experts, if strategic stockpiling is excluded, India’s actual demand will surpass that of China. The main drivers of rising crude consumption in India are increasing urbanization, rising incomes, and improving lifestyles. The growing number of private and commercial vehicles is also contributing to higher oil demand.

On the other hand, crude oil consumption in China has slowed. Growth there is largely confined to the petrochemical sector. At present, China is filling its strategic petroleum reserves by about 200,000 barrels per day, which has helped stabilize global oil prices and allowed OPEC to restart capacity. However, over the long term, China may not be able to maintain such large stockpiles, making it difficult to absorb excess oil.

Experts believe that there are no strong reasons to expect a sharp jump in global crude demand next year. The average additional demand is likely to be only about 1 million barrels per day, which will not be sufficient relative to supply. Thus, the direction of the global crude market this year will largely depend on the contrast between rising demand in India and slowing consumption in China. Both producers and investors are closely watching this shift.

Dear Trader…

Markets started the week on a positive note and ended with modest gains amid mixed cues. The Nifty gradually moved higher through the day; however, sharp profit-taking in the final hour trimmed the gains. On the sectoral front, autos, realty and metals were among the performers, while IT and FMCG lagged. Broader markets displayed resilience, with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices closing modestly higher—underlining sustained interest in the wider universe.

Investor sentiment was supported by the GST rate cut tailwinds and dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve, which bolstered rate-cut hopes after weak US jobs data. Easing geopolitical risks and optimism around India’s domestic economic outlook also lent support to select sectors. However, persistent foreign institutional selling and speculation over potential restrictions on IT services exports capped the upside. Fund flows reflected a tug-of-war between FII outflows and robust DII buying, a typical feature of markets at an inflection point.

Nifty futures opened at 24888 points against the previous close of 24847 and opened at a low of 24862 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 116 points and a rise of around 45 points and 24892 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.50% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.16%. Speaking of various sectoral indices IT, Healthcare, Consumer Durables, Pharma, FMCG, Healthcare and It & Telecom stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,07,456, fell from a high of Rs.1,08,180 points to a low of Rs.1,07,101 with a rise of 393 points, a trend of around Rs.1,08,121 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,26,400, fell from a high of Rs.1,26,400 points to a low of Rs.1,23,557 with a rise of 932 points, a trend of around Rs.1,25,629.

Meanwhile, Auto and ancillary stocks continued to rally on expectations of demand recovery following GST rate cuts, while IT remained weak amid global uncertainties. Globally, sentiment improved after soft US jobs data raised hopes of a Fed rate cut in September.

Tata Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra, Adani Airports, Bajaj FinServ, Ultratech Cement, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank and BEL were the top gainers from the Sensex basket. While Trent, Asian Paints, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, PowerGrid, TCS, Sun Pharma, L&T, NTPC and Bharti Airtel settled lower.

The majority of sector indices settled in green. Nifty Auto soared 868.60 points or 3.30 per cent, Nifty Fin Services jumped 53 points or 0.21 per cent, and Nifty Bank escalated 72 points or 0.13 per cent. Meanwhile, Nifty IT fell 325 points or 0.94 per cent amid persistent selling. The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

Dear Trader…

Markets traded in a narrow range and ended nearly flat on Friday. After a positive start, the Nifty slipped in the first half, weighed down by weakness in IT majors; however, resilience in select heavyweights supported a recovery as the session progressed. Eventually, it closed almost unchanged at 24,847.

Sector-wise, auto stocks outperformed, rising over 1% on optimism following reduced GST rates for vehicles. These gains were offset by weakness in consumer and IT counters, with IT reversing early strength to close lower by 1.3% amid global growth concerns. Meanwhile, mid- and small-cap indices posted modest gains of around 0.3% each.

Despite optimism around policy reforms and supportive domestic factors, markets appear to be entering a consolidation phase, cautious given lingering tariff concerns and persistent foreign institutional outflows. That said, trading opportunities remain across sectors. Participants are advised to align their positions accordingly, with a focus on risk management.

Nifty futures opened at 24855 points against the previous close of 24827 and opened at a low of 24720 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 206 points and a rise of around 20 points and 24847 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise of 0.20% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise of 0.19%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only IT, FMCG, Realty, Healthcare and Consumer Durables stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.1,06,676, fell from a high of Rs.1,07,634 points to a low of Rs.1,06,600 with a rise of 864 points, a trend of around Rs.1,07,281 and December Silver opened at Rs.1,23,500, fell from a high of Rs.1,25,974 points to a low of Rs.1,23,500 with a rise of 1480 points, a trend of around Rs.1,25,400.

Meanwhile Mahindra and Mahindra, Maruti, PowerGrid, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Eternal, Bajaj FinServ, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, and Axis Bank were the top gainers among the Sensex stocks. While ITC, HCL Tech, TCS, Hindustan Unilever, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, L&T, Titan, Kotak Bank and Ultratech Cement were settled in negative territory.

The sectoral indices experienced a mixed response amid cautious investors’ response. Nifty Fin Services jumped 35.90 points or 0.14 per cent, while Nifty Auto soared 325.75 points or 1.25 per cent. Nifty IT slipped 507 points, and Nifty FMCG ended the session 811 points or 1.42 per cent lower.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

The recent changes in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) framework will have only a limited impact on India’s economy, according to Bank of America (BoA). BoA’s report highlights that the effective GST rate has averaged around 11% over the past few years, and is expected to decline to 10.90% in the current fiscal year. This rate cut could lead to a potential revenue loss of about ₹48,000 crore for the government, equivalent to around 13 basis points of GDP. However, BoA believes that even if the revenue loss turns out to be slightly higher, it may be partly offset by strong consumption and lower claims for input tax credit.

The reduction in GST rates is likely to ease inflation and boost consumption, which in turn could give the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) greater flexibility in its monetary policy stance. Still, the RBI has clarified that any decision to cut interest rates will depend on future data and that it will not act hastily. From a fiscal perspective as well, the GST rate cuts are not expected to significantly disrupt the government’s finances. BoA has maintained its estimate for India’s fiscal deficit at 4.40% of GDP for the current financial year.

Following recent changes in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure, a fierce competition is expected among e-commerce companies during the festive season. With GST reduced on products such as air conditioners, refrigerators, televisions, and daily-use items, online retail platforms like Amazon and Flipkart are gearing up with new offers and schemes to attract customers.

As per the decision taken in the 56th GST Council meeting, only two base GST rates—5% and 18%—will now apply, while a 40% rate has been fixed for products such as tobacco. This simplified structure will make compliance easier for companies and is expected to boost festive sales, according to e-commerce industry representatives.

The direct impact of price reduction is likely to accelerate online sales during the festive period. Nearly 25% of major online retailers’ annual revenues come from festivals such as Dussehra and Diwali, making this season critically important for them.

The government’s objective is also to stimulate domestic demand. With the U.S. imposing tariffs of up to 50%, concerns have arisen about a decline in India’s export markets. In response, the government is focusing on strengthening local sales.

E-commerce companies believe that the new GST framework will benefit not just businesses but also consumers. During the festive season, buyers will be able to purchase products at lower prices and plan their shopping needs more efficiently.